A nonparametric procedure for analyzing repeated measures of spatially correlated data

Many agricultural, biological, and environmental studies involve detecting temporal changes of a response variable, based on data observed at sampling sites in a spatial region and repeatedly over several time points. That is, data are repeated measures over time and are potentially correlated across space. The traditional repeated-measures analysis allows for time dependence but assumes that the observations at different sampling sites are mutually independent, which may not be suitable for field data that are correlated across space. In this paper, a nonparametric large-sample inference procedure is developed to assess the time effects while accounting for the spatial dependence using a block bootstrap. For illustration, the methodology is applied to describe the population changes of root-lesion nematodes over time in a production field in Wisconsin.     

基于PSD法的船载雷达随机振动响应分析

目的 优化以经验为主的船载雷达结构设计流程,缩短设计周期,提高设计的准确性。方法 提出基于模态分析和PSD法的新的设计流程,利用ANSYS软件对雷达天线和转台结构进行系统的随机振动分析,得到其模态、应力分布、位移云图及响应谱曲线,验证设计的准确性、合理性。结果 得到雷达系统在1σ下的最大应力值和最大变形量分别为14.847 MPa和0.367 mm。结论 新的设计流程可以得到可靠性更高的产品,能有效缩短产品的设计周期,具有重要的借鉴意义。     

运输包装箱的多载荷减振设计研究

目的考虑降低成本,提高效率,面向卫星产品型谱的通用式包装箱设计势在必行。如何确定和选用一种适应于不同载荷特性的减振方案,成为航天器运输减振设计的关键点和技术难点。方法针对这一问题,分析了目标产品的尺寸接口和质量特性,对卫星不同舱段运输工况进行了振动特性分析和试验。结果在此基础上设计了一种适用于3种卫星舱体、4种运输状态通用的包装箱减振分系统,并对装载尺寸参数进行了优化。系统一阶垂向频率不高于5.8 Hz。结论运输试验数据表明新型减振系统对航天产品的减振效果满足要求。     

外部性视角下的节水灌溉技术补偿标准核算——基于选择实验法

合理的补偿标准是节水灌溉技术补偿政策的核心,也是促进农户技术采用的关键内容。论文以石羊河下游民勤县为例,通过选择实验调研和RPL（Random Parameters Logit）模型估计,量化了节水灌溉技术采用的外部效益,并结合特定技术与农户谈判能力讨论了兼顾公平与效率的补偿标准。结果表明：民勤县城乡居民均希望实施节水灌溉技术来改善生态环境,技术采用的外部效益约为1 052.25元/hm²;以膜下滴灌技术为例,合理的补偿标准应在789.15元/hm²左右。从现行政策看,过低的补贴标准难以保障农户切身利益,导致政策响应不足。据此建议,完善成本收益核算体系,将技术采用的外部效益纳入补偿标准的核算中,提升补偿政策的公平性,同时也要根据技术类型及其采用面积进行精准化补偿,保障资金有效利用。     

Examination of factors associated with use rates after transition from a universal to partial motorcycle helmet use law

Objectives: Motorcycle riders account for a disproportionately high number of traffic injuries and fatalities compared to occupants of other vehicle types. Though research has demonstrated the benefits of helmet use in preventing serious and fatal injuries in the event of a crash, helmet use has remained relatively stable in the United States, where the most recent national estimates show a 64% use rate. Use rates have been markedly lower among those states that do not have a universal helmet law for all riders. In 2012, the state of Michigan repealed its longstanding mandatory helmet use law. In order to gain insights as to the effects of this legislative change, a study was conducted to examine short-term changes in helmet use and identify factors associated with use rates.

Methods: A statewide direct observation survey was conducted 1 year after the transition from a universal helmet law to a partial helmet law. A random parameters logistic regression model was estimated to identify motorcyclist, roadway, and environmental characteristics associated with helmet use. This modeling framework accounts for both intravehicle correlation (between riders and passengers on the same motorcycle) as well as unobserved heterogeneity across riders due to important unobserved factors.

Results: Helmet use was shown to vary across demographic segments of the motorcyclist population. Use rates were higher among Caucasian riders, as well as among those age 60 and above. No significant difference was observed between male and female riders. Use was also found to vary geographically, temporally, and with respect to various environmental characteristics. Geographically, helmet use rates tended to be correlated with historical restraint use trends, which may be reflective of riding environment and general differences in the riding population. To this end, rates were also highly variable based upon the type of motorcycle and whether the motorcyclist was wearing high-visibility gear.

Conclusions: The study results demonstrate the short-term reduction in helmet use following transition from a universal to partial motorcycle helmet law. The reduction in use is somewhat less pronounced than has been experienced in other states, which may be reflective of general differences among Michigan motorcyclists because the state has also generally exhibited higher use rates of seat belts and other forms of occupant protection. The study results also highlight potential target areas for subsequent education and public awareness initiatives aimed at increasing helmet use.     

Are you okay to drive? Commuting behavior and blood alcohol concentrations among restaurant diners

Objective: Drink driving is widely recognized as a major road safety problem. In Australia, health promotion messages encourage monitoring the number of standard drinks consumed prior to driving. This pilot research aimed to investigate commuting behavior and blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of diners, including intended drivers, at Sunshine Coast restaurants.

Methods: Five hundred and forty-four diners (n = 260 males) consented to participate in a brief interview and to use a breathalyzer device to measure their BAC.

Results: Forty percent of participants advised they don't drink and drive (34% of males, 45% of females; 67.25% of <17–20 years, 30.5% of 50–59 years), and of the remaining participants, 75% advised they count the number of their drinks (69% of males, 84% of females; 32% of <17–20 years, 82% of 50–59 years), while 10% of participants monitored their BAC by how they were feeling (12% of males, 6% of females). Thirty-seven percent of participants said it was easy/very easy to estimate their BAC (41% of males; 33% of females; 21% of <17–20 years, 43% of 50–59 years). The actual BAC was less than expected for 56% of participants, with one-third underestimating BAC and some intended drivers having an actual BAC in excess of the 0.05 limit.

Conclusions: Given the proportion of diners who reported they count the number of drinks, or use feelings as a way to gauge BAC, coupled with the considerable proportion who underestimated their BAC, a safer public health message is to avoid driving if you intend to drink. In addition, targeted intervention for experienced drivers (and, arguably, drinkers) appears warranted, as every participant aged less than 21 years who stated he or she would drive home indeed had a zero BAC. Interestingly every female driver who stated she would be driving home also had a legal BAC, suggesting gender-specific intervention.     

基于MATLAB和有限元的虚拟振动试验系统

通过MATLAB平台建立了虚拟振动设备包括振动台和控制器,采用有限元软件建立振动台动圈、夹具、试件一体化模型作为被控对象,与虚拟振动设备形成闭环的虚拟振动试验系统,可开展仿真试验,成为振动试验辅助设计平台。     

飞机飞行振动预计技术研究

介绍了飞机飞行振动的主要来源和特征,分析了传统预计方法的不足,针对飞机飞行振动与高度、马赫数和攻角等飞行参数呈非线性关系的特点,提出了基于BP神经网络的飞行振动预计新技术,建立了预计模型,通过8组建模样本训练网络,确定了预计模型中的各个参数值。预计结果和实测飞机飞行振动信号比较分析表明,该方法预计精度高,验证了BP神经网络预计飞机飞行振动的可行性。     

车载物资振动环境谱的数据处理与归纳

车载物资或设备振动环境谱的数据处理与归纳是车载物资或设备环境可靠性试验的重要组成部分,对保障车载物资或设备的完整性和可靠性具有十分重要的意义。以货车为例,依据GB10593．3～90进行数据合并,然后采用统计容差法进行振动环境条件随机振动规范谱的估计。所得到的规范谱为车栽物资或设备振动环境的可靠性评定奠定了基础。     

电路板环境应力筛选方法效能分析

论述了对设计、工艺成熟电路板组件的环境应力筛选方法,对比恒定高温、温度循环、温度冲击、振动及其组合筛选的筛选度,并进行效能比分析。通过对比各种应力对有较大共性的电路板组件筛选的分析,对GJB 1032进行适当裁减,提出了不少于10个温度循环加随机振动的筛选组合,以适应电路板板级筛选要求,提高效能比。